Guide
The silver deficit: supply, demand, and projections.
The world has used more silver than it mined and recycled every year since 2021, according to the Silver Institute. The shortfall has been covered from silver already above ground, and the forecasts behind the headlines change from one report to the next.
Updated October 28, 2026
As of October 22, 2026
Supply and demand, year by year
| Million ounces | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total supply | 1,018.7 | 1,030.1 | 997.0 | 1,019.6 | 1,090.4 | 1,066.4 |
| Industrial demand | 564.1 | 592.3 | 657.1 | 679.0 | 657.4 | 639.6 |
| …of which solar panels | 88.9 | 118.1 | 192.7 | 197.5 | 186.6 | 151.0 |
| Jewelry | 181.0 | 233.2 | 201.7 | 205.1 | 189.3 | 159.4 |
| Silverware | 40.7 | 73.5 | 55.1 | 53.5 | 42.1 | 33.5 |
| Coins and bars | 285.3 | 339.5 | 244.2 | 190.9 | 217.7 | 257.6 |
| Total demand | 1,102.4 | 1,284.1 | 1,197.0 | 1,157.4 | 1,130.6 | 1,112.6 |
| Deficit | 83.7 | 254.0 | 200.1 | 137.9 | 40.3 | 46.3 |
The Silver Institute's World Silver Survey 2026 (compiled by Metals Focus). Silver-backed ETF buying and selling is reported separately and isn't part of the deficit: in 2025, ETFs added another 278.1 million ounces of demand.
Over 2021 to 2026, the Silver Institute puts the cumulative deficit at 762.1 million ounces, including its 2026 forecast.
Why the forecasts move
Each edition of the survey revises earlier years. In April 2025 the 2025 deficit was forecast at 117.6 million ounces; in November 2025 it was estimated at 95 million; the April 2026 survey put it at 40.3 million, after revising mine output upward. The 2026 forecast went from 67 million ounces in February 2026 to 46.3 million in April on the new baseline. Treat any single forecast as an estimate, and look for the edition date.
What's driving demand
- Industry, more than half of all demand: electronics, electric vehicles, and solar panels.
- Solar demand is expected to fall in 2026, by about 19%, as panel makers use less silver per cell after high prices.
- Coins and bars are forecast to rise about 18% in 2026, while jewelry and silverware fall.
How the shortfall has been met
A deficit doesn't mean silver runs out: it's covered by drawing on silver already held in vaults and other stocks. Identifiable stocks in London, New York, and Shanghai still totaled about 1.39 billion ounces at the end of 2025. Metals Focus says the market "has clearly entered an era of reduced stocks." See vault inventories and shortages.
Forecasts are the Silver Institute's, not ours; nothing here is investment advice.
Sources
- The Silver Institute, World Silver Survey 2026 (data by Metals Focus), April 2026, and its November 2025 and February 2026 market updates.
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